Why has the dollar and gold been so volatile recently?

Illustrative photo. Photo: "Nasha Niva"

Dollar exchange rate fluctuations occur not only against the Belarusian ruble but also against world currencies. The reason lies in external factors. According to Luzgina, a number of geopolitical moments influence this – for example, the relationship between the United States and Iran and Venezuela.

"In addition, another important event happened last week – Trump proposed appointing a new head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). This had a rather positive effect on the dollar, as Trump had disagreements with the previous head of the FRS, which did not add stability to the American currency," the expert believes.

The regional factor also influences the Belarusian ruble's exchange rate against the dollar. Thus, the Russian ruble also fluctuated significantly last month, within 74-80 rubles per dollar. The reason for this is negotiations over the war in Ukraine.

"The Russian ruble, although already more restrained, still reacts to the negotiations. Economic aspects also remain an important factor: export revenues, as well as the arrival of the tax period – the latter short-term strengthened the Russian ruble against foreign currencies last week," the expert notes.

Speaking about the situation in general, Luzgina notes that in recent weeks we have observed market fluctuations that are short-term in nature.

Павялічыць

Illustrative photo. Photo: "Nasha Niva"

Is it not worth rushing to the exchange office?

Dollar fluctuations, Luzgina notes, are short-term.

"Since the Belarusian ruble exchange rate fluctuates in both directions against the dollar but remains stable against the currency basket, this means that exchange rate fluctuations are caused not by long-term changes, but by the influence of geopolitical factors or by the impact caused by short-term market reactions," the expert explains.

Luzgina emphasizes once again that exchange rate fluctuations in Belarus are primarily a result of external factors, not internal ones.

"We cannot say that there is any pressure on the Belarusian currency market right now," the economist notes.

Gold is much more volatile than currency rates

As for the price of gold, such market behavior is also largely associated with geopolitical processes.

"In a situation of instability, investors try to invest at least part of their funds in reliable assets, which include gold. If a certain stabilization occurs in the world, then the demand for gold may decrease, and the price will react accordingly," Luzgina notes.

At the same time, the expert believes that, despite the movement towards de-escalation, a period of volatility will persist in the near future.

And the Belarusian ruble exchange rate, in addition to the above factors, may be influenced by the results of the Central Bank of Russia's meeting, where they will decide whether or not to revise interest rates.

"If, for example, rates are lowered, the Russian ruble may depreciate, and the Belarusian ruble will follow its trajectory."

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