Kyiv started separating Belarusians from Lukashenka. When will this change the lives of Belarusians in Ukraine?

At the political level, 2026 looks almost groundbreaking. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya visited Ukraine for the first time with an official visit and met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In Kyiv, with the support of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the fifth Ostroh Forum took place, bringing together politicians, experts, and representatives of civil society from both countries. Public contacts have increased. Ukrainian authorities have begun to more clearly separate the Belarusian regime from Belarusians.

Now the main question is: will political rapprochement translate into decisions that people will feel?

For now, it is almost not felt in daily life. Belarusian volunteers are still awaiting clear recognition of their participation in the defense of Ukraine, while volunteers and other Belarusians await clear rules for legalization. Experts discussed how relations between Belarusians and Ukrainians are changing and what still hinders their rapprochement at a briefing on October 5.

In 2020, Lukashenka Still Had Sympathy in Ukraine

The parties came to the current dialogue after an almost complete breakdown in relations. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's chief advisor Franak Viačorka reminds that in 2020-2021, Lukashenka still maintained a relatively favorable image in Ukraine. Belarusian democratic forces had few contacts there, and Ukrainian expertise on Belarus was limited.

The full-scale Russian invasion changed everything. In February 2022, Russian troops entered Ukraine, including from Belarusian territory. Lukashenka's rating collapsed, and Belarus began to be perceived as a co-aggressor country. Suspicion and hostility were felt by ordinary Belarusians as well.

Official Kyiv, meanwhile, long avoided full-fledged contacts with Belarusian democratic forces. Years of contacts, information work, volunteer initiatives, and public events were needed for Kyiv to start seeing more clearly: there is a boundary between the regime and society. Not only politicians played an important role here.

Belarusians' Strongest Argument — People on the Front

Belarusian volunteers demonstrated the difference between the people and the regime – through their own participation in the war.

Yevhen Mahda, director of the Kyiv Institute of World Policy, calls them "bearers of the spirit of good neighborliness." However, Ukraine has not yet definitively determined their political status.

"The problem of political legitimization of Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine is quite acute," Mahda acknowledges.

Kyiv Asks: What Can You Do for Our Security?

A turning point in political relations has indeed occurred. According to the third Index of Belarusian-Ukrainian Relations, presented by Mahda, overall indicators have grown precisely due to Kyiv's cooperation with democratic forces. Relations with official Minsk remain virtually frozen.

But Kyiv's attitude towards democratic forces, it was said during the briefing, is largely determined by their ability to influence Ukraine's security. What can Belarusians do now to reduce the threat coming from the territory of Belarus?

Franak Viačorka names three directions: support for volunteers and humanitarian workers, information campaigns in support of Belarusian fighters, and the use of the Belarusian issue for international advocacy for Ukraine.

Belarusian experts offer another resource – their expertise, knowledge of Russia and processes in the Union State. They can explain how Moscow is absorbing Belarus, what is happening in the military sphere, and what threats might arise for the region. Belarusian independent media can continue to work with society within the country and resist the involvement of Belarusians in the war.

There Are Meetings, But No Confidence in Tomorrow

While politicians talk about a new model of relations, Belarusians in Ukraine face much more down-to-earth problems: documents, legalization, and uncertainty about their migration status.

Franak Viačorka calls the resolution of these issues priority number one. Only after this, in his opinion, will it be possible to talk about new projects and a new level of cooperation. This is the main test of the current rapprochement.

The meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy holds great symbolic significance. The appointment of a separate Ukrainian representative for Belarusian affairs creates a channel for systematic work. But a person who doesn't know if they'll be able to renew their documents and remain in the country is unlikely to feel the impact of this diplomatic breakthrough.

Ukrainian Teenagers May Only Know Belarus as the Direction from Which Troops Came

There is another problem. According to a study presented by Andrey Kazakevich, director of "Political Sphere," older Ukrainians generally have a better attitude towards Belarusians. They know more about Belarus, have more often had personal contact experiences, and remember the relations between people before the full-scale war.

Young Ukrainians do not have such memories. When today's high school student was twelve, Russian troops advanced on Kyiv from Belarusian territory. Now he is sixteen, and almost his entire conscious teenage life has passed under wartime conditions. For him, Belarus may primarily be a point on the map from which danger came. He may never have personally met Belarusians.

In a few years, these people will become adults, they will vote, work in state institutions, media, and the civil sector. Their attitude towards Belarus will influence relations between the countries much longer than current political agreements.

Experts note: joint Belarusian-Ukrainian educational programs, youth camps, cultural projects, music, and even computer games are needed. Everything that allows a Ukrainian to see beyond the word "Belarus" not Lukashenka and Russian tanks, but a specific person.

Belarusian propaganda works where there is no personal experience. According to Kazakevich, about a fifth of surveyed Ukrainians have encountered materials from Belarusian state media. If independent Belarus remains invisible, its place is taken by the regime and its voice.

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