Statkevich: If Belarus Participates in Aggression Against NATO or Becomes a Rear Base for Such Actions, a NATO Strike on Belarus Will Be Inevitable
Mikalai Statkevich compared the Kremlin's support for Lukashenka to a khan's yarlyk (charter) for princely rule. For retaining power, Lukashenka pays an ever-increasing price, and this could cost Belarusians dearly, the politician writes .
The Mongols had a tradition: contenders for princely positions in lands dependent on them had to obtain permission to rule, one of the names for which was "yarlyk" (charter). To obtain a "yarlyk," one had not only to crawl tens of meters on one's belly into the khan's yurt, but also to agree to certain concessions and services to the Khan of the Golden Horde. Material or political.
It is known that Muscovite princes benefited most from those crawl-backs, concessions, and services. Therefore, this tradition became so entrenched in Moscow that the successors of those princes now themselves grant their satellites permission to rule according to the same principle — after self-abasement and concessions.
In recent Belarusian history, the procedure for obtaining a "yarlyk" occurred almost before every presidential "election." The scheme is always the same. On the eve of "elections," the Kremlin demonstrates a cooling in its attitude towards the main candidate and even a desire to support an alternative. Among the local "security forces," wavering begins — they perfectly understand what the entire system rests upon. As one of them told me: "As long as Moscow is with us, and it has oil, we can sleep soundly." But here, apparently, it's "not with us" anymore. Doubts begin.
But on the eve of "elections," the main candidate goes to Moscow. I don't know about the crawling, as everything happens closed off from the press and public, but in the end, the parties sign an agreement with new concessions and demonstrate "allied" relations. The "security forces" calm down and ensure the usual "election" result.
Only with each new "election" do the concessions of sovereignty become greater.
After 2020, our territory was ceded for the attack on Ukraine. Now Moscow, according to Western intelligence, is preparing for military actions against neighboring NATO countries. Such an undertaking is unlikely to proceed without the use of our territory.
If Belarus participates in aggressive actions against NATO or becomes a rear base for such actions, then a strike by NATO forces on our territory will be inevitable. Regardless of whether any NATO general has stated this publicly or not.
It seems the price of the "yarlyk" has risen crazily. But ultimately, it could cost Belarusians, and all neighboring peoples, very dearly.
Only a free, nuclear-free, and neutral Belarus can prevent conflict in Europe, and thus, in the entire world.
Former locksmith of a military unit in Pleschenitsy was heading for a record number of criminal convictions — but disappeared in the very first "meat assault" 66
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Вайна будзе гибрыднай, пасля таго як РФ абламалася аб Украину са сваім прамым узброеным уварваннем, дакладней яна ўжо ідзе. Будуць дыверсіі, невядомыя людзі са зброяй без апазнавальных знакаў. Балгарыі прыгатавацца
На мой погляд, існуюць 2 памылкі інтэрпрэтацыі:
1. "Беларусь нешта зробіць і панясе адказнасць за гэта". (Як у Статкевіча: "возьме ўдзел у агрэсіўных дзеяннях супраць NATO ці стане тылам для такіх дзеянняў", у Нашай Нівы: адказ "на тых кірунках, з якіх напад будзе ажыццёўлены. Калі з Беларусі — то па Беларусі").
Не так, бо камандныя пункты СПА РФ ужо знаходзяцца ў Беларусі і пры любой агрэсіі Расеі ў рэгіёне будуць выконваць вайсковыя задачы, а таму і самі будуць законнай вайсковай мэтай.
2. Узмацненне "ўдар па вайсковых аб’ектах РФ у Беларусі" да "ўдар па Беларусі" або нават "удар па беларусах".
СМІ, палітыкі, блогеры, грамадства ўзмацняюць, бо так гучыць галасней, а зараз хто галасней, таго і пачуюць.
Не так, бо мэта не ў нейкім усталяванні справядлівасці і помсце ("а Беларусь/беларусаў за што"), а ў вайсковай логіцы прыярытэтнага знішчэння аб’ектаў ворага.
Умоўна, калі ў адказ на агрэсію РФ з Польшчы або Германіі па ваенных аб’ектах у Калінінградскай або Ленінградскай вобласці паляцяць ракеты, то радары ў Беларусі з-за геаграфічнага становішча будуць адным з галоўных трыгераў актывацыі расейскай сістэмы абароны, і таму адначасова самі стануць мэтай для знішчэння.