Under conditions of heavy shelling in Ukraine, with a negative scenario, electricity might be available for only four hours a day
At the same time, at a temperature of -10°C and without new shelling, power outages could last up to eight hours a day.
Due to the shutdown of many industrial enterprises, electricity consumption remains lower than before the full-scale invasion. Therefore, the available generating capacities should be sufficient to meet winter demand, believes ExPro analyst Daria Orlova, writes RBC-Ukraine.
However, insufficient generating capacities have been built on the left bank of the Dnieper in Kyiv, which creates risks for these areas in case of damage to lines transmitting electricity from west to east.
Up to a third of all generating capacities are coal-fired power plants. They have significant fuel reserves — 1.7 million tons of coal, according to former Energy Minister Olga Buslavets.
At the same time, coal-fired power units have been operating for 50-60 years. Physically, they have exhausted their resource and may fail. In addition, these facilities are too large to be reliably protected, making it easier for the enemy to disable them.
The greatest risks to electricity supply exist in Kyiv and Odesa due to regular shelling of power grids.
According to the analyst's assessment, stricter outage schedules may be in effect in the capital than in other regions. Repair work is complicated by air raid alarms.
According to the assessment of one of the heads of energy companies, at an average temperature of -10 degrees Celsius and without shelling, outages could last up to 8 hours a day. At the same temperature, but in the event of significant damage to the energy system, electricity might be available for only 4 hours a day.
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