Ryanair CEO Predicted 'Largest in History' Airfare Increase in Europe

At a press conference in Brussels, O'Leary stated that next year, fares for intra-European flights could increase by up to 20%. However, even such an increase, in his opinion, will not allow airlines to fully offset the rising fuel costs, and their profitability will still decrease.

«In the next 12 months, Europe will probably face the largest increase in air ticket prices in history. The question is whether this increase will be enough to cover the sharply increased oil bills? I don't think so,» said the head of Ryanair.

According to O'Leary, most European airlines, including Ryanair, do not have sufficient hedging against oil price fluctuations for next year. In addition, air transport capacity in the market has decreased, as some companies are facing difficulties, and tax increases further complicate the industry's situation.

«Next year, 85% of our fuel needs are not hedged against price fluctuations, and most other European airlines are in a similar position,» he stated.

On October 20, Ryanair shares fell by 2.4%, Germany's Lufthansa by almost 1%, and France's Air France-KLM by almost 2%. Since the beginning of the year, Ryanair shares in Ireland have lost over 25% of their value. If this trend continues until the end of 2026, it could be the company's worst performance since 2018.

Ryanair had already warned about a possible increase in airfare prices. In September, the company stated that short-haul flights across Europe would become significantly more expensive next year if oil remains costly.

As Bloomberg notes, since the start of the war in the Middle East in late February, airlines worldwide have been under pressure due to the sharp increase in jet fuel prices. In its July earnings report, Ryanair stated that the conflict negatively impacted the company's profit, among other things. Additionally, due to concerns about potential fuel supply disruptions, passengers began booking tickets later.

Jet fuel prices sharply increased after the start of hostilities between the US and Iran. The increase was influenced by rising oil prices and supply disruptions from Gulf countries. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in spring, jet fuel prices sometimes exceeded $200 per barrel — more than 100% higher than pre-war levels.

Later, the pace of price increases slowed. However, according to IATA estimates, last week the average global price of jet fuel increased by another 1.2% compared to the previous week and reached $192.4 per barrel. This is approximately $100 more than before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

In trading on October 20, Brent crude futures were trading at around $111 per barrel, and WTI — over $105. Since the start of the war in Iran, Brent crude has increased by more than 54%.

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