Europe Cannot Replace the US in Providing Satellite Intelligence to Ukraine

Ukrainian authorities suspect the US of deliberately disabling warning systems for Russian missile attacks and slowing down Starlink's operation after Donald Trump made a diesel deal with Vladimir Putin. Washington denies this, writes the Moscow Times.

European countries condemned Trump's actions and supported Ukraine, but their military-space capabilities are limited. Europe significantly assists the AFU in offensive operations — tracking Russian troops and military facilities with satellites so that long-range strikes can be launched against them.

No country, except the US, can provide practically continuous satellite imagery of the entire territory of Europe.

The ability to do this is at the core of the US early warning system for missile threats originating from any point on Earth, notes Bloomberg, and this information is especially valuable for Ukrainians.

Europeans are looking for ways to help Ukraine at least partially reduce its dependence on the Starlink system, the military part of which has started to malfunction. But technical limitations will prevent this from happening for at least several more years.

Missile Defense

American Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) satellites track cruise missiles and other low-flying defeat devices in real time that can evade ground-based radar detection. Information about them helps the AFU's air defense, which uses interceptor drones, aviation cannons, and other low-tech methods to destroy Russian vehicles used in massive bombardments of Ukrainian cities.

SBIRS is also capable of detecting the exhaust plumes of ballistic missiles. This information is extremely important for Ukraine. If it arrives in advance, the AFU has a better chance of shooting down the missile on approach (this usually requires two interceptors). True, the air defense now has almost no American Patriots left that are capable of stopping ballistic missiles. But even if the information arrives and the alert sounds 1-2 minutes before impact, people will have time to take cover.

Ukrainian officials suspect the US of periodically limiting intelligence supplies recently. Because of this, for example, on Sunday, they told Bloomberg, the first wave of Russian missiles struck without warning. Before the second wave, according to them, the early warning system was restored.

The attack came in several waves, "and once again, no prior warning came from our partners," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said then. According to him, Russia launched 16 ballistic missiles during the strike on Kyiv and surrounding areas.

Trump stated on Monday that the Ukrainian president "doesn't know what he's talking about" and that he should have ended the war long ago. Trump added:

We share intelligence, we share a lot. Don't tell me about Ukraine. We have given Ukraine a lot. And they have given us nothing.

Europe has no plans to create a system comparable to SBIRS in capabilities. The US has almost 250 military satellites in orbit, China has about 150, Russia has about 100; numerous additional devices have dual purposes. Europe as a whole has only 50 military satellites.

European Intelligence Capabilities

European satellites assist Ukraine in offensive operations. They detect Russian troops, equipment, artillery, and other military targets, including ammunition depots, airfields, and missile launch sites. Finnish ICEYE satellites can operate at night and penetrate cloud cover and smoke. French sensors register thermal radiation and detect signs of human activity that ordinary cameras might easily miss.

Germany has paid commercial companies, such as the American Planet Labs, to supply Ukraine with high-resolution imagery, including from Russian territory. This allows for data to be obtained for targeting and tracking troop movements, which can help disrupt an offensive.

The AFU also uses information about such targets to strike them with their drones.

Starlink Problems

Starlink, from Elon Musk's SpaceX company, has been used by civilians and military personnel in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion. It provides communication for AFU troops, and terminals are also installed on aerial and naval drones.

Starlink has over 10,000 satellites in orbit. Having received funding from the US National Reconnaissance Office, SpaceX also created a version called Starshield, which it describes as a secure system for government customers, designed specifically for national security purposes, explains The Wall Street Journal. Starshield has about 200 satellites, many of its capabilities are classified.

Ukrainians have reported since last week a loss of communication or interruptions when drones with installed terminals exceed a speed of 160 km/h, or even just 60-80 km/h. Musk then stated that Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government, while Starlink is a commercial service, so it should not be used "for offensive military actions."

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers still use freely available Starlink equipment, which indeed has limitations: for example, the speed limit does not allow it to be placed on missiles and fast drones, explains WSJ. Some parts of the AFU have started using the Starshield system, which has enhanced features and fewer restrictions on use in offensive operations.

It was in Starshield that speed problems arose, causing Ukrainian military personnel to cancel several operations. Starshield is used, in particular, for controlling medium-range drones and interceptor drones, which need to quickly catch up with a Russian missile.

On Monday evening, Zelenskyy stated that, according to the report of the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU and despite the statement by US Secretary of State Mark Rubio, the restrictions had not been fully lifted. "This slows down our frontline logistics and limits the use of various types of drones, primarily medium-range and interceptors for jet 'Shaheds'," Zelenskyy wrote in a Telegram channel.

Existing or planned European satellite systems cannot match Starlink in scale and capabilities. The closest analogue, OneWeb, managed by France's Eutelsat, has about 600 satellites. But their orbit is approximately twice as high as Starlink's, which increases signal transmission time. Starlink also has higher bandwidth, better territorial coverage, and more compact terminals.

The EU has begun forming the IRIS2 constellation of 350 secure satellites, but this process will only be completed in 2029. Europe's capabilities to launch military satellites into orbit are limited. Launches of the sole European heavy-lift rocket Ariane 6 are carried out approximately 10 times a year from the spaceport in French Guiana, near South America.

Meanwhile, Europeans plan to connect Ukraine to their secure satellite communication system Govsatcom, which began operating this year, in early 2027. This should help reduce dependence on Starlink, but will not be able to replace it.

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