India increased ammunition supplies to Ukraine's allies 18-fold in recent years
India has increased its sales of ammunition to European countries supporting Ukraine by almost 18 times since the start of Russia's full-scale war. Indian manufacturers have taken advantage of the growing demand for weapons in Europe, where in the first years of the war there was a lack of domestic production capacity to supply the Ukrainian army, writes Bloomberg agency.
According to data from India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, cited by Bloomberg, since the start of the Russian invasion, Indian companies have supplied ammunition and related materials worth at least $872 million to Europe. This category includes artillery shells, mortar rounds, rocket fuel, and explosives. In the four years preceding the war, the total volume of such exports was only $49.2 million. Thus, supplies increased 17.7 times.
European countries experienced an acute shortage of ammunition needed to support Ukraine. In 2022, they set a goal to produce one million artillery shells for the Ukrainian army by March 2023. However, due to a lack of production capacity, this plan was only achieved closer to the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Ukraine was significantly inferior to Russia in the amount of artillery that the parties could deploy on the front line. On average, the Russian army had a three-to-five-fold advantage, and in particularly difficult periods or on specific sectors, the ratio could reach ten to one. Therefore, Indian ammunition supplies became an important opportunity for European states to replenish their stocks.
Political scientist Walter Ladwig from King's College London notes that the Russian war created demand in the arms market, to which Indian defense enterprises responded. According to him, it was also a commercially beneficial financial decision.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to develop national arms production to reduce the country's dependence on imports, including from Russia. Moscow has remained the main arms supplier for New Delhi since Soviet times.
About three-quarters of India's ammunition exports went to 13 countries in Eastern and Central Europe. These include Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania, which are not members of the European Union.
These states are located on NATO's eastern flank and were among the main suppliers of weapons to Ukraine in the early years of the war. Their cumulative ammunition imports increased more than tenfold. For the rest of Europe, the growth was significantly smaller — approximately twofold.
It is not necessarily the case that Indian ammunition was directly transferred to Ukraine. Bilateral arms supply contracts usually specify which buyer has the right to use them. However, European countries could keep the ammunition purchased from India for their own needs, and transfer weapons from their own stocks to Ukraine. The USA acted similarly by purchasing ammunition from South Korea.
As a result, India became the second largest supplier of ammunition and materials for their production to Central and Eastern European countries, second only to South Korea. Four years ago, it ranked only 28th in this rating.
Particularly notable changes occurred in the trade of explosives. In the 2026 fiscal year, which ran from April 2025 to March 2026, India took first place among suppliers of such products to the countries of the region. The volume of supplies amounted to $45 million. For comparison, the USA exported $35 million worth of explosives there. Before the 2023 fiscal year, India did not supply such products to these countries at all.
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