Updated Exit Polls After Israeli Elections: No Winner, Eisenkot's Opposition Bloc on Par with Netanyahu

In Israel, updated exit poll data has been published after the Knesset elections, according to which the opposition bloc led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot no longer leads, but is on par with Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters. According to forecasts, both blocs will receive 51 seats in the Knesset, writes the BBC.

Initial exit poll data indicated that the opposition bloc led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot would win 52-53 seats in the Knesset, while Netanyahu and his allies would have about 50 mandates, including 24-25 for his Likud party.

However, new exit poll data shows a tie between the Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs.

Israeli news channels Kan 11 and Channel 13 published updated data from their exit polls, according to which the two competing blocs are predicted to win 51 seats each.

Channel 12 also revised its exit poll data. Now, according to the updated figures, Eisenkot's bloc will receive 50 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc will receive 52 seats.

To form a majority government, the winner needs to secure at least 61 seats in the Knesset.

Also, a record number of mandates, according to exit polls from Kan News, Channels 12 and 13, will be received by Arab parties: they are predicted to win 17-18 seats in the Knesset.

The first partial official results began to arrive after midnight local time; so far, 2.5% of votes have been counted. The election commission warns that the vote count could take several days.

Netanyahu stated that it is still too early to draw conclusions, and he awaits "real results" before the election outcome can be determined.

According to data from Israel's Central Election Commission, voter turnout in this year's general election was 77.7% as of 10:00 PM local time, when polling stations closed. According to the commission, 5,695,682 people voted, making it the highest turnout since 1999.

As BBC correspondent Tom Bennett notes, high turnout was also observed in cities where Israeli Arabs constitute the majority of the population. If Arab parties indeed receive significant voter support, this could reduce the representation of both main Jewish political blocs and leave some smaller parties, which fail to clear the 3.25% electoral threshold, outside the Knesset.

37 parties competed for 120 seats in the Knesset. In the country's history, no single political force has ever secured an absolute majority in parliament (a minimum of 61 mandates), which is why all governments have been coalition governments.

Gadi Eisenkot stated after the publication of the first exit poll data that the results "indicate a complete vote of no confidence in Netanyahu" and his government. If these predictions are confirmed, the opposition will "immediately begin to act to fulfill the will of the people and change Netanyahu's government," he added.

The gap between major political forces in Israel is often minimal, and exit polls in the past have not always accurately predicted election results.

The current Knesset elections are the first since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the ensuing war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

Netanyahu's current term as Prime Minister of Israel began in 2022, but he had previously led the government multiple times over many years.

The main issue for Israeli voters in the current elections remained the country's security and the question of accountability for the shortcomings of security forces, which were unable to prevent or promptly respond to the Hamas attack. Opposition groups promised to conduct an independent national investigation into these events.

Meanwhile, Israel is finding itself increasingly isolated on the world stage due to the devastating military campaign in Gaza, as well as intensified settlement construction and violence in the occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu's last government lasted almost four years, an unusually long period by Israeli standards, and for the first time included representatives of ultra-right parties, whom opponents consider extremist.

Negotiations on the composition of the future government could take a long time, and Netanyahu will continue to govern the country until a new cabinet is formed.

President Isaac Herzog will entrust the formation of the government to the politician he deems to have the best chances of creating a ruling coalition. If that politician fails, this mandate will be passed to another candidate.

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