Will France risk Paris defending Warsaw? The French "nuclear umbrella" is as questionable as the American one

In 1961, French President Charles de Gaulle asked his American counterpart John F. Kennedy if the US was willing to sacrifice New York to save Paris. He never received an answer.

Doubts that Washington would risk its own security for the sake of European allies became one of the reasons for creating an independent French nuclear arsenal, which remained outside NATO's nuclear planning system.

More than six decades later, this question, as The Wall Street Journal international columnist Yaroslav Trofimov writes, has become relevant again. Washington's rapprochement with Moscow, energy agreements with Russia, and pressure on Ukraine have only strengthened European doubts about the reliability of American security guarantees.

Moreover, it's not just about Donald Trump's policies. European capitals believe that the vast strategic nuclear arsenal of the US is primarily intended to defend America itself. And in the event of a conflict in Europe, Washington would most likely limit itself to the B-61 nuclear gravity bombs deployed with allies. These were developed back in the 1960s, and now their ability to strike Russia is significantly limited due to the level of development of Russian air defense.

What France offers

Against this backdrop, French President Emmanuel Macron put forward the concept of "forward nuclear deterrence." It involves deploying French Rafale fighter jets, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, in other European countries, as well as cooperation in intelligence, communication, and early warning of threats.

Ten states have joined the initiative: Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Greece, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. The Baltic countries, which are particularly vulnerable to the Russian threat, did not join the project, and Italy declined to participate.

France has about 290 nuclear warheads, which is significantly fewer than the US or Russia. However, its ASMP-A cruise missiles, which arm Rafale fighter jets, are designed to strike large Russian cities and, according to military experts, have a high chance of overcoming Russian air defense.

The purpose of the French initiative is not to replace the American "nuclear umbrella," but to create additional uncertainty for the Kremlin. Moscow must consider that in the event of a conflict, it could also face French nuclear weapons, and French aircraft might be operating outside of France.

But will Paris risk itself for Warsaw?

French officials believe that their guarantees may be more convincing than American ones. Unlike the US, France is on the same continent as its allies, so their security is directly linked to its own.

Macron also states that France's vital interests are not limited to its borders. However, Paris deliberately does not specify where exactly they end and does not provide unconditional guarantees to allies. The decision to use nuclear weapons, in any case, remains solely with the French president.

For now, France has created separate negotiating groups with each of the ten states, but there is no common nuclear planning mechanism. As a result, as high-ranking representatives of partner countries' defense ministries explain, they constantly have to call each other to compare what Paris has communicated to each country.

Moreover, the reliability of the French "nuclear umbrella" depends on who will govern the country. Experts fear that the coming to power of the far-right "National Rally," associated with Marine Le Pen, who previously maintained warm relations with Putin, could undermine European allies' trust in Paris.

According to Vipin Narang, a former high-ranking Pentagon official, the French initiative is better than nothing, but it should not be considered a substitute for American security guarantees.

And the main question remains the same one that de Gaulle once asked Kennedy. Only now it is addressed to Paris.

"It is unclear whether it looks convincing to the Russians that the French would risk a retaliatory strike on Paris for, for example, Warsaw. But the Russians are definitely paying attention to it," notes Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Russia and nuclear policy from Sciences Po university in Paris.

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